Executive Summary

George Bush was re-elected on November 2nd by taking 51 percent of the vote and by edging out John Kerry in the state of Ohio. Very important things happened in this election to make Bush’s victory possible, but support for the president’s approach to domestic and world affairs is not one of them. The American electorate - including the 2000 voters we sampled immediately after the election - wanted change, but settled for the president. The president and his campaign acted boldly to create an election dynamic that enabled Bush to escape the consequences of his incumbency and the public’s desire for change. More important was the attack on Kerry on abortion and gay marriage and the extreme cultural polarization of the country. That proved effective at the end because the president was able to keep the election centered on safety (the terrorist threat) and values, rather than on Iraq and the stagnant economy. Bush asked people to vote their beliefs and feelings, rather than to judge his performance or ideas for the future. That is why George Bush’s vote on Election Day exceeded his pre-election job approval and exceeded his final poll numbers.

Methodology:

Democracy Corps conducted a national survey of 1,000 voters November 2-3, 2004. We combined the data with 1,000 voters in a survey conducted for the Institute for America’s Future on the same dates. The two surveys shared several common questions such as issue concerns and reasons to vote for the candidates, enabling us to look at large sub-samples of the population.

Key Findings

• The biggest collection of doubts surrounding Bush (86%) centered on his economic policies, big tax cuts for the wealthy, job losses and outsourcing
• For the Bush waverers, the key swing group in the election, moral values were as important as terrorism and national security, and critically, are followed by concerns with the economy and jobs.
• The most striking feature of this election:  the inverted class election among white voters - the very best educated voted for Kerry and the least educated voted for Bush