Executive Summary

We do not often get to write such a report — changes so large over such a short period that they certainly portend a whole new playing field for the November election. This survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted in only Republican-held seats, yet Democrats are ahead by 4 points overall in the named congressional vote (49 to 45 percent); indeed, they are ahead by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in the bottom tier of presumably safest seats.

This vote represents a dramatic change in the state of the race over the last two weeks. The end of the Congress — with the increased pessimism and anger about Iraq and the Foley scandal and subsequent partisan brawl — has moved voters to shift their assessments of the parties and their votes. The 1994 election broke at the end; this one just broke. The shift is evident on every indicator — party, Bush, war, intensity and morale.

The shift this poll shows in the Republican held seats reflects a dramatic change nationally in the generic congressional ballot. Democracy Corps will shortly release a new report showing a 5-point swing on average to the Democrats in the ten media polls conducted in October. The Democratic vote, stuck at 49 percent for months, suddenly jumped to 53 percent in the last two weeks.

Methodology

This memo is base on a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey for Democracy Corps of 1,200 likely voters in the 49 most competitive Republican-held Congressional Districts. The survey was conducted between October 10 and October 12, 2006. The districts surveyed included CT 02, NY 26, FL 22, FL 16, OH 18, CO 07, NY 24, IN 08, NC 11, FL 13, PA 10, PA 06, AZ 08, IN 02, TX 22, NM 01, KY 04, IA 01, OH 15, IN 09, CT 04, PA 07, MN 06, OH 01, IL 06, PA 08, CT 05, CO 04, WA 08, WI 08, NY 20, VA 02, AZ 05, KY 03, NV 03, NY 29, NH 02, NY 25, CA 11, NV 02, MN 01, NH 01, WY AL, CA 04, KY 02, OH 02, TX 23, FL 9, and NJ 07

Key Findings

• A new survey finds Democrats ahead by 4 points in the named congressional vote (49 to 45 percent) in the 49 most competitive Republican-held districts
• This vote represents a dramatic change in the state of the race over the last two weeks with the shift evident on every indicator: party, Bush, war, intensity and morale.
• This meltdown has been produced by a collapse in confidence in Republicans without a comparable surge for the Democrats.
• Amidst all the mudslinging, Democrats can consolidate and expand these gains if voters will hear what Democrats want to do with a new majority