Executive Summary

Between November 5-7, 2006, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner interviewed 1,021 voters in the most competitive House and Senate races in the country. These are the voters that delivered the House, and probably the Senate as well, to the Democrats. The survey explored explicitly the role of the Iraq War on voter decision-making. The results are unambiguous. Iraq was the number one issue for voters in this election, Iraq voters strongly favored Democrats and, across the board, voters believe Democrats will work to reduce or completely withdrawal troops from Iraq.

• Iraq was the primary issue in this election. Asked which one or two issues are most important to them in making up their minds, 37 percent identify Iraq (36 percent in House races, 39 percent in Senate races). No other issue comes within 10 points of this mark.
• Iraq was the number one issue among key swing groups. Iraq was the top issue among seniors (42 percent), Independents (39 percent) and moderate voters (43 percent). Nearly half of voters who supported Democrats in congressional (50 percent) and Senate (47 percent) campaigns identify Iraq as one of their most important issues.
• Iraq drove the new Democratic majority. Among voters who identify Iraq as their most important issue, Democratic candidates enjoyed a 33-point margin in House races (65 - 23 percent) and 40-point margin in Senate races (69 - 29 percent).
• Issue was clearly defined. A majority of voters in both House and Senate races saw major differences between the candidates on this issue.
• Voters demand change. By a 54 - 39 percent margin, voters favor setting a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. Even more (58 percent) want to increase congressional oversight of the President’s policies, including investigations into private contracting and intelligence gathering during the lead up to the war and 53 percent want to change leadership in the Iraq War, beginning with the firing of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
• Voters expect change. A very striking 71 percent of voters expect Democrats to reduce orwithdraw troops from Iraq if they gained control of Congress.
  

 
Methodology:

The survey reached 1021 adults in the 50 most competitive House districts and 8 most competitive U.S. Senate races. All interviews were conducted among likely voters or voters who already cast their ballots. The survey was conducted November 5-7, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Key Findings

• Iraq was the primary issue in this election.  37 percent named as the number one issue, 39 percent in Senate races.
  
• Iraq was the number one issue among key swing groups - among seniors, Independents, and moderate voters
• Iraq drove the new Democratic majority. Voters who identify Iraq as their most important issue voted for democrats by 65 - 23 in House races and 69 - 29 in Senate races