Executive Summary

This survey, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner's first battleground poll for Democracy Corps in 2007, finds  the center of the American electoral battlefield has shifted as much since the 2006 election as it did in 2006 campaign. With an unpopular President and an even more unpopular war, Republicans are ceding territory and opening new areas for Democrats. Indeed, Democratic congressional candidates in this named ballot hold on average a 9-point lead in these districts that actually supported the Republican candidate by 1 point in 2006 and President Bush by 8 points in 2004.

These are both the best of times and challenging times for the Democrats. The electoral situation could not be better, particularly in the battleground districts where 2008 looks like a repeat of 2006, but Democrats face challenges as well, particularly on Iraq - the most important issue for voters who want change.

The new Democratic leadership must remain on the offensive by 1) engaging Bush and the Republicans on Iraq to maximize opportunities in the most vulnerable Republican-held districts and 2) engaging on domestic issues and showing progress or exposing Bush’s resistance to change.

Methodology

This survey, of 1,600 likely voters in the 70 most competitive congressional districts across America, was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps. The survey fielded June 10-14 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.

Key Findings

• Democratic incumbents hold a significant lead in the battleground districts, winning the congressional vote by 20 points - 56 to 36 percent.
• The country is split on whether Democrats should keep taking Iraq back to the President to be vetoed or move on to other issues. 70 percent of Democrats say stay the course.
• Democrats need bursts of activity and progress on issues that show they are part of the change, not the problem. Despite the initial strong reaction to the ‘100 hours,’ the public now sees little progress since the new Democratic majority was sworn in and a majority say Democrats have not followed through with their campaign promises.