Survey Shows United National Movement with Majority at End of Parliamentary Race in the Republic of Georgia

May 19, 2008
For immediate release

Survey Shows United National Movement with Majority at End of Parliamentary Race in the Republic of Georgia, and Likely to Win a Strong Majority of Seats

**The following information is being released solely to the international media and not the Georgian media in accordance with Georgian law which prohibits the publication of polls results by Georgian media within 48 hours of an election.  The recipients of this information are responsible for taking measures to ensure this law is respected and not to facilitate the publication of these results in Georgian press until 8:00pm Georgian time, 12:00pm EST, May 21, 2008, again in accordance to Georgian law.  We respectfully request all recipients of these results embargo this information until that time.**

Tbilisi, Georgia. May 19, 2008. A survey of voters in the Republic of Georgia, which fielded May 8-12, shows the ruling United National Movement (UNM) attracting the support of a majority of all likely voters in this Wednesday’s parliamentary election, and likely to earn a strong majority of seats in the new Parliament. 

The Republic of Georgia recently changed its voting system so that 75 of the 150 seats in its Parliament will be chosen on the basis of proportional representation from a vote on party lists, while the other 75 will be decided by votes among candidates in 75 single-member districts.

The new survey shows that among all Georgian adults, in the vote on the party lists, the UNM has the support of 43 percent, compared to 14 percent for the Christian Democratic Movement, 11 percent for the United National Council, 5 percent for the Labor Party of Georgia, and 2 percent for the Republican Party; 21 percent are undecided. [Figure1]

Looking only at the 53 percent of voters who are most likely to vote on May 21, the UNM’s support grows to 51 percent, while the Christian Democratic Movement earns 11 percent, the United National Council receives 10 percent, the Labor Party earns 5 percent, and the Republicans attract 3 percent.  Among these likely voters, 19 percent are undecided.  [Figure 2]

By examining their responses to other questions in the survey, it is possible to project how this block of 19 percent likely but undecided voters would most likely cast their ballots.  Once we allocate the undecided likely voters in this manner, the National Movement emerges with 54 percent of the vote, with 19 percent for the United Opposition Council, 17 percent for the Christian Democratic Movement, 6 percent for the Labor Party, and 4 percent (which would be below the threshold for gaining parliamentary seats) for the Republican Party.  These figures represent our best estimate of the race going into the final 9 days of the campaign.  [Figure 3]

To assess the vote for candidates in the 75 single-member districts, the survey conducted a named ballot test; that is, in each district survey respondents were presented with a choice among the actual names of the candidates running in that district.  This named ballot test shows the United National Movement winning 48 percent of the votes across all districts among all adults, and 56 percent of the vote among likely voters.  [Figure 4]  If the United National Movement earns the kinds of majorities that this survey projects for both the party list vote and the single member district votes, the party would emerge with a strong majority of seats in the next Parliament, and potentially a two-thirds majority.

The May 12 survey also shows that a strong majority of the public expects the May 21 elections to be more free and fair than the January 3 presidential election.  Among all adults, 63 percent expect the May 21 voting to be more free and fair; the figure among likely voters is 68 percent.  [Figure 5]

One reason for this improved confidence in the May 21 election may be the various electoral reforms that have been implemented since the January 3 election.  We test four different reforms that have been put in place since then: making voter lists available for public scrutiny; lowering the threshold at which parties win seats in parliament based on the party list vote, down from 7 percent to 5 percent; changing the composition of the parliament to include 75 seats selected by national list, and 75 selected in single-member districts; and ending same-day voter registration.  Each of these leads a majority of the public to feel that it will make the May 21 voting more free and fair.  [Figure 6]

The survey was based on face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults, conducted between May 8-12, 2008.  The survey was based on a nation-wide, random sample, reflecting the distribution of the Georgian electorate across all regions (excluding Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and across rural and urban areas.  The survey used a variety of questions about voting likelihood to identify a sub-set of 633 respondents (53 percent of the sample) who are most likely to vote on May 21.  The methodology and questionnaire were designed by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, under the direction of its Executive Vice President Dr. Jeremy Rosner, as part of the firm’s work for the United National Movement.  The field work was conducted by the Georgian company ACT Research Ltd.  The margin of sampling error for a survey based on a random sample of 1,200 interviews is plus or minus 2.8 percent.  The margin of sampling error for the subset of 633 likely voters is plus or minus 3.9 percent.

This is Greenberg Quinlan Rosner’s final survey prior to the May 21 election, and the second time we have publicly released our polling results during this parliamentary race.  On January 3, 2008, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner also publicly released the results of a survey that projected Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had the support of 52 percent of likely voters.  In the January 5 balloting, President Saakashvili received approximately 53 percent of the vote.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has conducted opinion research for governments, campaigns, corporations, and non-governmental organizations in over 70 countries, on six continents.  There is more about the firm’s principals, clients, and methodologies at www.gqrr.com.