The Crash of the Republican Party and What it means for America’s political future


A leading pollster and adviser to America’s most important political figures explains why the Republicans will crash in 2020.

For decades the GOP has seen itself in an uncompromising struggle against a New America that is increasingly secular, racially diverse, and fueled by immigration. It has fought non-traditional family structures, ripped huge holes in the social safety net, tried to stop women from being independent, and pitted aging rural Evangelicals against the younger, more dynamic cities.

Since the 2010 election put the Tea Party in control of the GOP, the party has condemned America to years of fury, polarization and broken government. The election of Donald Trump enabled the Republicans to make things even worse. All seemed lost.

But the Republicans have set themselves up for a shattering defeat.

Over the last seven years, Greenberg led the Republican Party Project that has done deep and graphic research among Republican base supporters and its warring factions. As you will hear, they were angry at a GOP establishment that failed to stop Obama. Trump’s base was the Tea Party and his coalition of Evangelicals and observant Catholics has allowed him to dominate the party, but not unify.  Critically, many moderate, affluent suburban and women college graduates are abandoning the GOP and voting Democratic, as happened in California.

In RIP GOP, Stanley Greenberg argues that the 2016 election hurried the party’s imminent demise. Using amazing insights from his focus groups with real people and surprising revelations from his own polls, Greenberg shows why the GOP is losing its defining battle. He explores why the 2018 election, when the New America fought back, was no fluke. And he predicts that in 2020 the party of Lincoln will be left to the survivors, opening America up to a new era of renewal and progress


AMERICA’S REVOLUTIONARY CHANGES AND new era of Democratic reform

America is being rapidly transformed by revolutions in energy, innovation, big data, advanced manufacturing, but also immigration, racial diversity, family structure, religious faith that are turning millennials and the cities into cauldrons for change. One in five of the globe's migrants are in the US, producing an economic and cultural dynamism.

But America's progress comes with a dark side. That is why the 'America-is-in-decline' crowd gets part of the story right. The middle class is in trouble, incomes are stagnant, inequality is spiking, kids are raised with a single parent, and there is growing poverty and segregation in the cities. 

Donald Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ counter-revolution decried immigration, Mexican and immigrant criminals, and threats to US jobs, as well as the elite’s comfort with an America that was ever more foreign-born and multi-cultural. He decried the decline of the traditional family and male, bread-winner.  

But that misreads America. The great majority think immigration is good for the country, including most Republicans. Most other countries struggle sometimes violently with their immigrant, religious and racial differences. America's multicultural identity will win out. They are joining a counter-revolution to Trump that is playing out in a new level of engagement. 

The biggest companies identify with the new values, make clear their social bottom line and are moving into the cities. Cities and states are requiring a living wage, new work and family policies, accessible transport, affordable housing and sustainability and climate change. They are pressing reform, accelerated by opposition to President Trump.

Millennials embody and drive so much of these changes and the demand for reforms. President Trump has produced a tsunami among women. They are at the heart of the counter-counter revolution that will insist on a more activist government and change.

The speech includes a big dose of history, surprising data on American thinking and comparisons with other countries -- underscoring America's uniqueness.


THE POLLSTER FOR BILL CLINTON, NELSON MANDELA, TONY BLAIR and other current leaders TELLS INTIMATE STORIES ABOUT LEADERSHIP

I was pollster for five historic national leaders and some now who will get your attention.

It is a mystery how I ended with that honor, and often pinch myself: how did you get to be here?

I worked for Bill Clinton, Nelson Mandela, Tony Blair, Ehud Barak, and Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada-all presidents or prime ministers who won formative elections and then struggled to meet sky high expectations.

These are complicated people with complicated motives, ambitious, self-centered, and with more flaws than I want to know, but what other qualities would allow them to rise above the others?

You won't be surprised to discover that Nelson Mandela is the most impressive to know and work for but you will be surprised why?

You will learn when Bill Clinton ignored the polls.

I will explain why I learned the most from the Israelis, whose survival is always at stake.

This will be full of stories, like Mandela studying with his his debate book in bed or attending a focus group.

You will learn a lot about leadership and how to pursuit big goals in transformative times


THE FOUNDER OF MODERN POLLING'S GUIDE TO READING THE POLLS AFTER BREXIT AND TRUMP

Do you remember when elections were about something, not just the latest poll conducted by some network or newspaper?

Remember when polls were right? Not blown away by the latest surprise winner in the yet another referendum or election in Israel, Britain, Colombia or the US?

Pundits and analysts look at Brexit, the defeat of the Colombian peace agreement, and Trump's nine lives and say, what polls should I trust?

Well, the founder of modern polling and focus groups for political campaigns will provide his guide to interpreting public opinion polls.

He show why some get things so wrong and why some can be trusted.

The media rushes to the polls most different from the boring average, and that tells you more than anything about the foolish coverage.

The pundits never catch up to how fast the country is changing.

And the biggest change is cell phones, and that is changing everything.

Won't cell phones be the end of polling? Won't big data analytics be the end of polling? Maybe, though probably not.

This is all informed by experience as pollster for Bill Clinton, Nelson Mandela, Tony Blair and many current political and business leaders, so the talk is full of stories.

He has been described as a puppet master who diminishes political leaders who put their finger to the wind.

His answer is Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres of Israel. Ask him what they said about polling.

And ask him whether America really elected Donald Trump or it was just a figment of the polls?