Why we expect an earthquake in the 2026 midterms

Primary voters in big states are sending electable candidates to general elections.

Zohran Mamdani’s expected victory in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City is sure to advance the conventional wisdom that the Democratic Party faces two very difficult years ahead.

As the prevailing story goes, the party has high and growing disapproval. Its own voters see it as a party with weak leaders who don’t get things done or lead on behalf of the middle class. And its primary voters pick candidates who appeal to the far left — such as Mamdani, a democratic socialist — not the mainstream electorate.

But the Democratic Party of New York City is not a microcosm of the nation. Recent trends leave us confident about Democrats. In primaries this month in New Jersey and Virginia, Democratic voters nominated moderate and progressive candidates for governor with broad appeal. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, a retired Navy helicopter pilot, and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, a former CIA officer, each flipped Republican-held House seats in 2018. They made affordability their top priority.

The party’s primary voters are the party. They’ve been picking candidates who are taking the Democratic Party in a different direction and by and large addressing its horrible brand problems.

The full article can be read at The Washington Post.