2018 at a breaking point?

Over the last three months, Democrats have doubled their margin in the generic congressional ballot to an 11-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters nationally. That is near the 9-point margin Democrats won in 2006 when they flipped 30 congressional seats and retook the majority, though reapportionment makes it harder to cross that threshold today.

Democrats sit at the edge of a wave thanks to the impressive vote gains among their minority base, unmarried women, millennials and women with college degrees. That mirrors the exceptional performance of these groups witnessed in so many special elections in 2017. But the size of the wave depends on the turnout of the Rising American Electorate (minorities, millennials and unmarried women) whose enthusiasm for voting is falling. This new research shows that all voters across the RAE base become more supportive of Democrats and more interested in voting when they hear Democrats make the election about a rejection of trickle-down, target Trump for betraying his promise to end politics as usual, and articulate a disruptive message for change. Democrats can take this election to another level, but only if they prioritize the RAE in this way.

For more from this memo and a presentation describing our findings, click here.