Democrats have a path to victory, according to recent polling.

Democrats face daunting internal problems and headwinds to get to a winning margin in the 2022 midterms. Yet it is possible.

To investigate this, we conducted a 2,500-person national and battleground-state survey, with large oversamples of the Black, Hispanic, and Asian American (AAPI) communities. The survey also maintains the level of working-class voters in the electorate that we saw in Donald Trump’s campaign in 2020: 61 percent without a four-year college degree (my definition of working class). The white working class still forms 46 percent of the survey respondents.

To protect against Trump voters’ distrust of polls and elites—something I learned about from the polling on Netanyahu in Israel and Brexit voters in Britain—I put up the recalled Trump vote for white working-class women to 57 percent (a 17-point Trump margin) and for the men to 65 percent (27-point margin).

This survey shows an electorate that looks miserable for Democrats. Only 28 percent believe the country is on the “right track.” They view Republicans more favorably than Democrats, “Republicans in Congress” more favorably than “Democrats in Congress,” and give Donald Trump a higher job approval rating than they do Joe Biden.

The top issue by far is the cost of living. After that comes the economy and jobs, and crime and violence. And Republicans have a fast-building advantage on each, going from 4 points on the cost of living to 14 points on crime and 15 points on the economy. Democrats struggle to be more trusted on the economy.

Crime is a top-tier issue for Hispanics, Asian Americans (AAPI), Gen Z, and millennials; and for Blacks it is at parity with the cost of living. Democrats lose Asian Americans by 9 points on who is better on crime. And the biggest worry in the survey, if Democrats were to win control of the Congress, would be a surge of crime and homelessness and attacks on police. Major parts of the Democratic base accept Trump’s dire warning that America has never been more at risk from crime, open borders, disrespect for police, and a lack of pride in America.

And finally, 54 percent of Republicans say they are following the election with the highest level of interest on a 10-point ladder scale, 8 points higher than Democrats. To estimate likely turnout, we highlight which voters put themselves from 8 to 10 on that ladder. All voters are at 67 percent, but Blacks, Hispanics, and AAPI voters trail that level by about 10 points, and Gen Z voters trail by 20.

Yet Democrats are, despite all these problems, at a 2-point advantage in the generic congressional vote, with still more cards to play.

This poll shows how Democrats could readily lose their lead and fall behind if they make the wrong choices, particularly on the cost of living and crime. There are deep frustrations running through the electorate that Republicans will never cease to exploit. But there is also a strategy for Democrats to prevail.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.